“十四五”中国分省经济发展、能源需求与碳排放展望——基于CMRCGE模型的分析     

李继峰  顾阿伦  张成龙  孙振清 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(6):649-659

在梳理新常态以来各省经济布局发展以及能源需求特征的基础上,重点剖析了国家区域协调发展战略,并利用中国多区域动态可计算一般均衡模型（China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium,CMRCGE）,对“十四五”时期各省经济社会发展、能源需求及碳排放进行了模拟分析。主要结论包括：(1)在区域协调发展战略指引下,预计到“十四五”末,中国将有13个省市人均GDP超过1.5万美元,16个省市人均GDP在1.0万~1.5万美元之间,各省经济有望实现平稳较快发展。(2)预计2025年各省能源需求总量可达54.5亿tce（由于数据原因,未测算西藏）,“十四五”年均增长约为1.5%,能源需求仍保持低速增长。同时能源需求的重心逐步从东部向中部转移,而西部地区能源大省的用能比重基本保持稳定,这与各地所处的经济发展阶段、区域协调发展战略导向基本一致。(3)“十四五”时期各省的碳排放（主要考虑能源利用碳排放）强度年均降幅约为5.4%,绝大部分省份降幅超过4.0%。近年来碳强度显著下降的趋势有望继续保持。  相似文献   

东营凹陷盐22块沙四上亚段砂砾岩粒度概率累积曲线特征   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

袁静  杨学君  路键勇  陈武杰  樊海琳  袁凌荣 《沉积学报》2011,29(5):815-824

在岩芯观察和沉积相分析基础上,利用粒度分析资料对东营凹陷北部陡坡带盐22块沙四上亚段近岸水下扇砂砾岩体的粒度概率累积曲线进行了研究。研究表明,该地区近岸水下扇砂砾岩中的粒度概率累积曲线主要包括：＂上拱弧形＂、＂简单一段式＂、＂准牵引流型＂等3种基本类型和＂近似上拱弧形＂、＂台阶状多段式＂、＂低斜率两段式＂、＂低斜率三段...  相似文献   

“8.12”陇南市特大暴雨与落区和泥石流点预报     

冯军 《地质灾害与环境保护》2011,22(4):9-15

2010年8月11至13日,陇南市连续发生强降雨,引发暴洪、泥石流和滑坡等地质灾害.本文讨论暴雨的天气实况、环流背景和物理特征,从云图和降雨特征分析降雨机理.研究发现,副高边缘低槽东移形成低涡,在涡旋过程中单点降落,是形成暴雨的根本原因;又因单点的强度太大,短时形成灾害.  相似文献   

国际天然气水合物勘查开发研究新进展 ——第七届爱丁堡国际天然气水合物大会特邀报告综述     

唐金荣  苏新  许振强  祝有海  吴能友 《地质通报》2011,30(12):1927-1933

简要介绍了2011年7月在英国爱丁堡召开的第七届国际天然气水合物大会概况。对会议中5个大会特邀主题报告给予介绍或评述。Thomas介绍了亨弗利· 戴维对科学发现的追求和应用,后者在实验室发现了气水合物。Ripmeeste总结了实验模拟中对气水合物客体与载体相互作用、水合物形成和分解过程的认识和成果。Suess指出过去25年间人们对海洋天然气水合物的研究经历了从“避免策略到旨在获取”、“能源开发和二氧化碳储存兼顾”、“追求储量到记录环境变化”3个阶段。Kurihara总结了日本多年的研发结果,包括数字模拟研究、对甲烷储层的分类和产气能力的评估、天然气生产方法等,讨论了商业发展甲烷水合物的可行性和挑战。Sloan介绍了管道安全复杂体系的4种概念性端元类型,并指出风险管理策略比防治更为经济,是未来防止水合物堵塞的重要工具。  相似文献   

Early 20th century warming in the Arctic: A review     

Takashi Yamanouchi   《Polar Science》2011,5(1):53-71

  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地东南部延长组长7段陆相页岩气地质特征及勘探潜力评价   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

姜呈馥王香增  张丽霞万永平雷裕红  孙建博郭 超 《中国地质》2013,40(6):1880-1888

提要：鄂尔多斯盆地为大型富含油气盆地,发育本溪组、山西组、延长组长7段、长9段等多套页岩层系,具备页岩气形成的基本地质条件。为查明鄂尔多斯盆地东南部延长组长7段页岩气的勘探潜力,本文利用有机地球化学和岩石学分析、含气量测试、等温吸附曲线测定等多种手段,分析了延长组长7段页岩的基本地质、地化及含气性特征。在此基础上,对长7段页岩气勘探潜力进行了初步评价。结果表明,长7段陆相页岩埋深和厚度适中、有机质类型以Ⅰ、Ⅱ型为主,有机质丰度和脆性矿物含量高,含气量可达1.25~6.45 ml/g。与北美地区典型页岩相比,研究区长7段页岩有机质类型、有机碳含量类似,粘土矿物含量和长石含量偏高,碳酸盐和石英含量偏少,有机质成熟度偏低。研究区内延长组长7段页岩气资源勘探潜力巨大,资源量为1 528.409亿m3,可作为常规油气勘探的重要补充,志丹—甘泉一线西南部为页岩气勘探的有利目标。  相似文献   

On some early attempts to determine the variation of the magnetic force with distance     

Mickaël Mussard  Jean-Louis Le Mouël  Jean-Paul Poirier 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2013,345(5-6):225-229

We describe two experiments made by the 18th-century physicists Francis Hauksbee and Pieter van Musschenbroek, designed to find the dependence of the magnetic force on distance. From the experimental results, given in the form of tables, the authors did not infer any simple law. We calculated the values obtained by assuming that the force varies as the inverse square of the distance and found a good agreement with their results. It therefore appears that these remarkable experiments could have provided an experimental proof of the law.  相似文献   

航空伽马能谱测量方法技术现状与展望   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

万建华  熊盛青  范正国 《物探与化探》2012,36(3):386-391

简要地介绍了国内外航空伽马能谱测量方法技术的发展现状,尤其是近年来航空伽马能谱测量在仪器研制、数据处理与资料解释方法技术及应用领域等方面取得的最新进展,并结合我国当前地质找矿工作的需求,提出今后一段时期我国航空伽马能谱量测工作的重点应着眼于加强区域性航空伽马能谱测量工作,重视资料的二次开发利用及拓展新应用领域;要作好仪器国产化之后的实用化开发,及加强航空伽马能谱测量新方法技术研究。  相似文献   

THE ORAL HISTORY OF GEOGRAPHY∗     

《The Professional geographer》2013,65(4):430-435

Book Reviewed in this article:

Latin America: Case Studies. Richard G. Boehm and Sent Visser

Locality and Rurality: Economy and Society in Rural Regions. Tony Bradley And Philip Lowe

The City and the Grassroots. Manuel Castells

Geopolitics and Conflict in South America. Quarrels among Neighbors. Jack Child

Post-Industrial America: A Geographical Perspective. David Clark

Coastal Research: UK Perspectives. Malcolm W. Clark

A Rural Policy for the EEC? Hugh Clout

Peasant Agriculture in Assam: A Structural Analysis. M. M. Das.

Environmental Change and Tropical Geomorphology. I. Douglas and T. Spencer

Advances in Abandoned Settlement Analysis: Application to Prehistoric Anthrosols in Colombia, South America. Robert C. Eidt

Measuring Culture. Jonathan L. Gross and Steve Rayner

North America: A Human Geography. Paul Guinness and Michael Bradshaw

A Geographical Bibliography for American Libraries. Chauncy D. Harris et al.

Geography and the Urban Environment: Progress in Research and Applications, Vol. VI. D. T. Herbert and R. J. Johnston

Changes in Global Climate: A Study of the Effect of Radiation and Other Factors During the Present Century. K. Ya. Kondrat'ev.

Rural Development and the State: Contradictions and Dilemmas in Developing Countries. David A. M. Lea and D. P. Chaudhri

The Martial Metropolis: U.S. Cities in War and Peace. Roger W. Lotchin

The Climate of the Earth. Paul E. Lydolph.

Weather and Climate. Paul E. Lydolph.

Spatial Divisions of Labor: Social Structures and the Geography of Production. Doreen Massey.

Panorama of the Soviet Union. N. Mikhailov.

Soviet Armenia. K. S. Demirchian.

USSR: Geography of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period. K. Spidchenko.

Planung und Verwirklichung der Wiener Ringstrassenzone (Planning and Materialization of the Ringstrasse-Zone of Vienna). Kurt Mollik, Hermann Reining, Rudolf Wurzer.

The American West Transformed: The Impact of the Second World War Gerald D. Nash.

An Overview of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Dawn Nelson, David McMillen, and Daniel Kasprzyk.

Phenomenology, Science and Geography: Spatiality and the Human Sciences. John Pickles.

Biological Diversification in the Tropics. Ghillean T. Prance

Die Wanderviehwirtschaft im gebirgigen Westen der U.S.A. und ihre Auswirkungen im Naturraum. Gisbert Rinschede.

Social and Economic Aspects of Radioactive Waste Disposal: Considerations for Institutional Management

World-Wide Weather. K. Takahashi

Coastal Geomorphology in Australia. B. G. Thom

Settlement System in Rural India: A Case Study of the Lower Ganga-Yamuna Doab. Ram Chandra Tiwari.

Computer Programming for Geographers. David J. Unwin and John A. Dawson.

Late Quaternary Environments of the Soviet Union. A. A. Velichko, ed. H. E. Wright, Jr. and C. W. Barnosky

Ethics in Planning. Martin Wachs  相似文献   

Symposium On Sediment Storage In Rivers And Estuaries     

《The Professional geographer》2013,65(4):487-488

Book Reviewed in this article:

Geographical Aspects of Health and Disease in India. Rais Akhtarand A.T.A. Learmonth, eds.

Antarctic Treaty System: An Assessment. Proceedings of a Workshop at Beardmore South Field Camp, Antarctica.

American Electoral Mosaics. J. Clark Archerand Fred M. Shelley.

Kompas op Suidwes-Afrika/Namibie. W.S. Barnard, ed.

Jerusalem in the 19th Century: The Old City. Yehoshua Ben-Arieh.

The World as a Total System. Kenneth E. Boulding.

A Social History of Housing 1815–1985, Second Ed. John Burnett.

Human Migration. W.A.V. Clark.

Regional Population Projection Models. Andrei Rogers.

The State of Population Theory: Forward from Malthus. David Colemanand Roger Schofield, eds.

Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology and the American Future. Joseph C. Corn, ed.

Swidden Agriculture in Indonesia: The Subsistence Strategies of the Kalimantan Kantú. Michael R. Dove.

Glacial Geologic Processes. David Drewry.

Physics of Desertification. Farouk El-Bazand M.H.A. Hassan, eds.

Housing the Homeless. Jon Ericksonand Charles Wilhelm, eds.

Settlement Patterns in Missouri: A Study of Population Origins, with a Wall Map. Russel L. Gerlach.

Desert Development: Man and Technology in Sparselands. Yehuda Gradus, ed.

Nuclear Winter. The Evidence and Risks. Owen Greene, Ian Percivaland Irene Ridge.

The Take-off of Suburbia and the Crisis of the Central City. Günter Heinritzand Elisabeth Lichtenberger, eds.

Regional Input-Output Analysis. Geoffrey J. D. Hewings.

Spatial Transportation Modeling. Christian Werner.

The Atlas of Georgia. Thomas W. Hodlerand Howard A. Schretter, eds.

Latin America. 5th ed. Preston E. Jamesand C.W. Minkel.

Applied Remote Sensing. C.P. Lo.

Localities, Class, and Gender. The Lancaster Regionalism Group.

Urban Social Movements: The City after Castells. Stuart Lowe.

Politics and Method. Doreen Masseyand Richard Meegan, eds.

Land Use. A. S. Mather.

The Kingdom of Coal. Donald L. Millerand Richard E. Sharpless.

The Presidio and Militia on the Northern Frontier of New Spain, A Documentary History, Vol. 1: 1570–1700. Thomas H. Naylorand Charles W. Polzer, S.J., comps. andeds.

Nuclear Power: Siting and Safety. Stan Openshaw.

The Central African Republic: The Continent's Hidden Heart. Thomas O'Toole.

Environmental and Dynamic Geomorphology. Márton Pécsi, ed.

Remote Sensing Principles and Interpretation. Floyd F. Sabins, Jr.

Acid Rain and Friendly Neighbors: The Policy Dispute between Canada and the United States. Jurgen Schmandtand Hilliard Roderick, eds.

Earth's Changing Surface: An Introduction to Geomorphology. M.J. Selby.

International Migration: The Female Experience. Rita J. Simonand Caroline B. Brettell, eds.

On Geography and Its History. D.R. Stoddart.

Transportation Networks: A Quantitative Approach. D. Teodorovic.

Processes in Physical Geography. R.D. Thompson, A.M. Mannion, C.W. Mitchell, M. Parry, J.R.G. Townshend.

Imaging Radar for Resources Surveys. J.W. Trevett.

Dominance and Affection: The Making of Pets. Yi-Fu Tuan.

Capturing the Horizon. The Historical Geography of Transportation since the Transportation Revolution of the Sixteenth Century. James E. Vance, Jr.

Nations at Risk: The Impact of the Computer Revolution. Edward Yourdon.  相似文献